Iberian Coastal
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LME 25: Iberian Coastal

Bordering countries:

Portugal, Spain, France

LME total area:

300,915 km²

LME overall risk:

This LME falls in the cluster of LMEs that exhibit medium to high numbers of collapsed and overexploited fish stocks, high levels of demersal non-destructive low bycatch fishing, as well as very high shipping pressure.
Based on a combined measure of the Human Development Index and the averaged indicators for fish & fisheries and pollution & ecosystem health modules, the overall risk factor is medium.

Productivity

Chlorophyll-A:

The annual Chlorophyll a concentration (CHL) cycle has a maximum peak (0.579 mg.m^-3) in April and a minimum (0.232 mg.m^-3) during September. The average CHL is 0.318 mg.m^-3. Maximum primary productivity (199 g.C.m^-2.y^-1) occurred during 1999 and minimum primary productivity (164 g.C.m^-2.y^-1) during 2003. There is a statistically insignificant increasing trend in Chlorophyll of 9.63 % from 2003 through 2013. The average primary productivity is 181 g.C.m^-2.y^-1, which places this LME in Group 2 of 5 categories (with 1 = lowest and 5= highest).

Primary productivity:

Sea Surface Temperature:

From 1957 to 2012, the Iberian Coastal LME #25 has warmed by 0.90°C, thus belonging to Category 2 (fast warming LME). The thermal history of this LME consisted of two epochs. The cold epoch culminated in SST plunging to 15.7°C in 1972, which marked a sharp transition to the warm epoch. The ensuing long-term warming continued almost unabated, save for a few reversals, until present. From the absolute minimum of 15.7°C in 1972 to the near-absolute maximum of 17.4°C in 1997, the SST warming rate was 1.7°C in 25 years. Overall, the thermal history of this LME is similar to that of the adjacent Mediterranean Sea LME #26. This similarity is noteworthy because ocean circulation patterns of these LMEs are almost completely independent from one another. The above-noted similarity between the thermal regimes of these LMEs means that atmospheric connections in this region likely play a more significant role than in other regions whose thermal regimes are largely determined by ocean currents.

Fish and Fisheries

The catch in the Iberian Coastal LME is composed mainly of three groups: herring, sardine and anchovy (42%), other pelagic fish (28%), and cod, hake and haddock. Coastal species harvested are anchovy, sardine, mackerel and horse mackerel. Hake, blue whiting, bream, bogue, pilchard, sprat and tuna are also caught.

Annual catch:

Total reported landings in the LME peaked at 640,000 t in 1964, but in general have fluctuated between 250,000 to 400,000 t.

Catch value:

The value of the reported landings reached 1.5 billion US$ (in 2005 real US$) in 1976.

Marine Trophic Index and Fishing-in-Balance index:

The MTI remained more or less even, except for two ‘dips’ in 1973 and 1983, likely associated with the high landings of (possibly farmed) mussels. The FiB index is also rather uninformative, except for the very last years, which reflects the decline in the landings.

Stock status:

The Stock-Catch Status Plots indicate that the number of collapsed stocks have been increasing, accounting for over 50% of the commercially exploited stocks in the LME, while the majority (50%) of the reported landings biomass is supplied by overexploited stocks.

Catch from bottom impacting gear:

The percentage of catch from the bottom gear type to the total catch reached its first peak at 35% in 1971 and then declined to 14% in 2004. In the recent decade, this percentage fluctuated around 18%.

Fishing effort:

The total effective effort increased from around 20 million kW in the 1950s to its peak at 150 million kW in 2000. In the recent few years, the fishing effort kept declining.

Primary Production Required:

The primary production required (PPR) to sustain the reported landings in this LME reached extremely high level in the mid-1970s, but declined to 30% by 2004.

Catch potential projections (under global warming):

Pollution and Ecosystem Health

Pollution

Nutrient ratio, Nitrogen load and Merged Indicator:

Human activities in watersheds are affecting nutrients transported by rivers into LMEs. Large amounts of nutrients (in particular nitrogen load) entering coastal waters of LMEs can result in high biomass algal blooms, leading to hypoxic or anoxic conditions, increased turbidity and changes in community composition, among other effects. In addition, changes in the ratio of nutrients entering LMEs can result in dominance by algal species that have deleterious effects (toxic, clog gills of shellfish, etc.) on ecosystems and humans. An overall nutrient indicator (Merged Nutrient Indicator) based on 2 sub-indicators: Nitrogen Load and Nutrient Ratio (ratio of dissolved Silica to Nitrogen or Phosphorus - the Index of Coastal Eutrophication Potential or ICEP) was calculated.

Nitrogen load:

The Nitrogen Load risk level for contemporary (2000) conditions was low (level 2 of the five risk categories, where 1 = lowest risk; 5 = highest risk). Based on a “current trends” scenario (Global Orchestration), this decreased to very low (1) in 2030 and did not change further by 2050.

Nutrient ratio:

The Nutrient Ratio (ICEP) risk level for contemporary (2000) conditions was high (4). According to the Global Orchestration scenario, this decreased to moderate in 2030 and remained moderate in 2050.

Merged nutrient indicator:

The risk level for the Merged Nutrient Indicator for contemporary (2000) conditions was low (2). According to the Global Orchestration scenario, this decreased to very low in 2030 and remained the same in 2050.

POPs:

Ten samples at 10 locations from 500 km of coastline are available for the Iberian Coastal LME. This LME exhibits moderate average concentration (ng.g^-1 of pellets) of 90 (range 11 – 307 ng.g^-1) for PCBs and low average concentrations of 7.6 (range 1-40 ng.g^-1 ) for DDTs and 2.3 (range 0-14.3 ng.g^-1) for HCHs. These correspond to risk category 3 for PCBs and category 2 for DDTs and HCHs, of the five risk categories (1 = lowest risk; 5 = highest risk). Two hot spots of PCBs pollution (Oporto: 307 ng.g^-1 and Lisbon: 274 ng.g^-1) were identified and legacy pollution was suspected (Mizukawa et al., 2013). Pollution levels for the other locations were low and thought to be derived from atmospheric depositions. DDTs and HCHs concentrations were mostly low with relatively higher inputs at Oporto and Lisbon, where river runoff was suspected as the contributor (Mizukawa et al., 2013). High concentration of HCH (14.3 ng.g^-1), corresponding to risk category 4, was detected at one Spanish location. Future monitoring should cover a wider area.

Plastic debris:

Modelled estimates of floating plastic abundance (items km^-2), for both micro-plastic (<4.75 mm) and macro-plastic (>4.75 mm), indicate that this LME is in the group with relatively high levels of plastic concentration. Estimates are based on three proxy sources of litter: shipping density, coastal population density and the level of urbanisation within major watersheds, with enhanced run-off. The high values are due to the relative importance of these sources in this LME. The abundance of floating plastic in this category is estimated to be on average over 100 times higher that those LMEs with lowest values. There is moderate evidence from sea-based direct observations and towed nets to support this conclusion.

Ecosystem Health

Mangrove and coral cover:

Not applicable

Reefs at risk:

Not applicable

Marine Protected Area change:

The Iberian Coastal LME experienced an increase in MPA coverage from 429 km² prior to 1983 to 838 km² by 2014. This represents an increase of 95%, within the lowest category of MPA change.

Cumulative Human Impact:

The Iberian Coastal LME experiences an above average overall cumulative human impact (score 4.57; maximum LME score 5.22), which is also well above the LME with the least cumulative impact. It falls in risk category 5 of the five risk categories (1 = lowest risk; 5 = highest risk). This LME is most vulnerable to climate change. Of the 19 individual stressors, three connected to climate change have the highest average impact on the LME: ocean acidification (1.04; maximum in other LMEs was 1.20), UV radiation (0.64; maximum in other LMEs was 0.76), and sea surface temperature (1.48; maximum in other LMEs was 2.16). Other key stressors include commercial shipping, ocean based pollution, and all three types of demersal commercial fishing (demersal destructive, non-destructive low-bycatch, and non-destructive high-bycatch).

Ocean Health Index:

The Iberian Coastal LME scores above average on the Ocean Health Index compared to other LMEs (score 73 out of 100; range for other LMEs was 57 to 82) but still relatively low. This score indicates that the LME is well below its optimal level of ocean health, although there are some aspects that are doing well. Its score in 2013 decreased 2 points compared to the previous year, due in large part to changes in the scores for natural products and clean waters. This LME scores lowest on food provision, natural products, coastal protection, carbon storage, and iconic species goals and highest on artisanal fishing opportunities, coastal economies, lasting special places and habitat biodiversity goals. It falls in risk category 2 of the five risk categories, which is a moderate level of risk (1 = lowest risk; 5 = highest risk).

Socio-economics

Indicators of demographic trends, economic dependence on ecosystem services, human wellbeing and vulnerability to present-day extreme climate events and projected sea level rise, are assessed for this LME. To compare and rank LMEs, they were classified into five categories of risk (from 1 to 5, corresponding to lowest, low, medium, high and highest risk, respectively) based on the values of the individual indicators. In the case of economic revenues, the LMEs were grouped to 5 classes of revenues from lowest, low, medium, high and highest, as revenues did not translate to risk.

Population:

The coastal area stretches over 167 834 km². A current population of 21 510 thousand in 2010 is projected to decrease to 14 662 thousand in 2100, with a density of 128 persons per km² in 2010 decreasing to 87 per km² by 2100. About 28% of coastal population lives in rural areas, and is projected to decrease in share to 27% in 2100.

Coastal poor:

The indigent population makes up 13% of the LME’s coastal dwellers. This LME places in the low-risk category based on percentage and in the medium-risk category using absolute number of coastal poor (present day estimate).

Revenues and Spatial Wealth Distribution:

Fishing and tourism depend on ecosystem services provided by LMEs. This LME ranks in the medium-revenue category in fishing revenues based on yearly average total ex-vessel price of US 2013 $686 million for the period 2001-2010. Fish protein accounts for 20% of the total animal protein consumption of the coastal population. Its yearly average tourism revenue for 2004-2013 of US 2013 $96 028 million places it in the very high-revenue category. On average, LME-based tourism income contributes 15% to the national GDPs of the LME coastal states. Spatial distribution of economic activity (e.g. spatial wealth distribution) measured by night-light and population distribution as coarse proxies can range from 0.0000 (totally equal distribution and lowest risk) to 1.0000 (concentrated in 1 place and most inequitable and highest risk). The Night Light Development Index (NLDI) thus indicates the level of spatial economic development, and that for this LME falls in the category with medium risk.

Human Development Index:

Using the Human Development Index (HDI) that integrates measures of health, education and income, the present-day LME HDI belongs to the very high HDI and very low risk category. Based on an HDI of 0.845, this LME has an HDI Gap of 0.154, the difference between present and highest possible HDI (1.000). The HDI Gap measures an overall vulnerability to external events such as disease or extreme climate related events, due to less than perfect health, education, and income levels, and is independent of the harshness of and exposure to specific external shocks.
HDI values are projected to the year 2100 in the contexts of shared socioeconomic development pathways (SSPs). This LME is projected to assume a place in the very low risk category (very high HDI) in 2100 under a sustainable development pathway. Under a fragmented world scenario, the LME is estimated to place in a very high-risk category (very low HDI) because of reduced income levels and population values from those estimated in a sustainable development scenario.

Climate-Related Threat Indices:

The Climate-Related Threat Indices utilize the HDI Gaps for present-day and projected 2100 scenarios. The contemporary climate index accounts for deaths and property losses due to storms, flooding and extreme temperatures incurred by coastal states during a 20-year period from 1994 to 2013 as hazard measures, the 2010 coastal population as proxy for exposure, and the present day HDI Gap as vulnerability measure.
The Contemporary Threat Index incorporates a Dependence Factor based on the fish protein contribution to dietary animal protein, and on the mean contribution of LME tourism to the national GDPs of LME coastal states. The HDI Gap and the degree of dependence on LME ecosystem services define the vulnerability of a coastal population. It also includes the average of risk related to extreme climate events, and the risk based on the degrading system states of an LME (e.g. overexploited fisheries, pollution levels, decrease in coastal ecosystem areas).
The 2100 sea level rise threat indices, each computed for the sustainable world and fragmented world development pathways, use the maximum projected sea level rise at the highest level of warming of 8.5 W/m² in 2100 as hazard measure, development pathway-specific 2100 populations in the 10 m × 10 km coast as exposure metrics, and development pathway-specific 2100 HDI Gaps as vulnerability estimates.
Present day climate threat index of this LME is within the high-risk (high threat) category. The combined contemporaneous risk due to extreme climate events, degrading LME states and the level of vulnerability of the coastal population, is high. In a sustainable development scenario, the risk index from sea level rise in 2100 is very low, and increases to medium risk under a fragmented world development pathway.

Governance

Governance architecture:

In this LME, the policy cycles relating to the key issues of fisheries and pollution are associated with well-established transboundary arrangements that are among the strongest globally. However, there does not appear to be much integration among these processes. Given that all coastal countries in this LME are within the European Union the EU CFP may provide integration among fisheries bodies and between fisheries and environmental issues. Further, this LME has been assigned an overall integration score of 1.0 due to the presence of the European Union Maritime Policy with its ability to function as an overall policy coordinating organization for the key transboundary issues within the LME.
The overall scores for the ranking of risk were: