Canadian Eastern Arctic - West Greenland
LME overall risk:
This LME falls in the cluster of LMEs that exhibit high percentages of rural coastal population, high numbers of collapsed and overexploited fish stocks, as well as high proportions of catch from bottom impacting gear.
Based on a combined measure of the Human Development Index and the averaged indicators for fish & fisheries and pollution & ecosystem health modules, the overall risk factor is medium.
Based on a combined measure of the Human Development Index and the averaged indicators for fish & fisheries and pollution & ecosystem health modules, the overall risk factor is medium.
Indicators of demographic trends, economic dependence on ecosystem services, human wellbeing and vulnerability to present-day extreme climate events and projected sea level rise, are assessed for the Canadian Eastern Arctic - West Greenland LME. To compare and rank LMEs, they were classified into five categories of risk (from 1 to 5, corresponding to lowest, low, medium, high and highest risk, respectively) based on the values of the individual indicators. In the case of economic revenues, the LMEs were grouped to 5 classes of revenues from lowest, low, medium, high and highest, as revenues did not translate to risk.
Population:
The coastal area includes the north and eastern shores of Nunavut, and western Greenland, stretching over 743,645 km2. A current population of 70,000 in 2010 is projected to decrease to 50,000 in 2100, with density decreasing from 9 persons per 100 km2 in 2010 to 7 per 100 km2 by 2100. About 81% of coastal population lives in rural areas, and is projected to decrease in share to 68% in 2100.
Coastal poor:
The indigent population makes up 10% of the LME’s coastal dwellers. The Canadian Eastern Arctic - West Greenland places in the very low-risk category based on percentage and absolute number of coastal poor (present day estimate).
Revenues and Spatial Wealth Distribution:
Fishing and tourism depend on ecosystem services provided by LMEs. The Canadian Eastern Arctic - West Greenland LME ranks in the medium revenue category in fishing revenues based on yearly average total ex-vessel price of US 2013 $386 million for the period 2001-2010. Fish protein accounts for 34% of the total animal protein consumption of the coastal population. Its yearly average tourism revenue for 2004-2013 of US 2013 $124 million places it in the very low revenue category. On average, LME-based tourism income contributes 4% to the national GDPs of the LME coastal states. Spatial distribution of economic activity (e.g. spatial wealth distribution) measured by night-light and population distribution as coarse proxies can range from 0.0000 (totally equal distribution and lowest risk) to 1.0000 (concentrated in 1 place and most inequitable and highest risk). The Night Light Development Index (NLDI) thus indicates the level of spatial economic development, and that for the Canadian Eastern Arctic - West Greenland LME falls in the category with high risk (low/ modestly developed).
Human Development Index:
Using the Human Development Index (HDI) that integrates measures of health, education and income, the present-day Canadian Eastern Arctic - West Greenland LME HDI belongs to the highest HDI and lowest risk category. Based on an HDI of 0.874, this LME has an HDI Gap of 0.126, the difference between present and highest possible HDI (1.000). The HDI Gap measures an overall vulnerability to external events such as disease or extreme climate related events, due to less than perfect health, education, and income levels, and is independent of the harshness of and exposure to specific external shocks.
HDI values are projected to the year 2100 in the contexts of shared socioeconomic development pathways (SSPs). The Canadian Eastern Arctic - West Greenland LME has no projected values for HDI metrics in either development pathway.
HDI values are projected to the year 2100 in the contexts of shared socioeconomic development pathways (SSPs). The Canadian Eastern Arctic - West Greenland LME has no projected values for HDI metrics in either development pathway.
Climate-Related Threat Indices:
The Climate-Related Threat Indices utilize the HDI Gaps for present-day and projected 2100 scenarios. The contemporary climate index accounts for deaths and property losses due to storms, flooding and extreme temperatures incurred by coastal states during a 20-year period from 1994 to 2013 as hazard measures, the 2010 coastal population as proxy for exposure, and the present day HDI Gap as vulnerability measure.
The Contemporary Threat Index incorporates a Dependence Factor based on the fish protein contribution to dietary animal protein, and on the mean contribution of LME tourism to the national GDPs of LME coastal states. The HDI Gap and the degree of dependence on LME ecosystem services define the vulnerability of a coastal population. It also includes the average of risk related to extreme climate events, and the risk based on the degrading system states of an LME (e.g. overexploited fisheries, pollution levels, decrease in coastal ecosystem areas).
The 2100 sea level rise threat indices, each computed for the sustainable world and fragmented world development pathways, use the maximum projected sea level rise at the highest level of warming of 8.5 W/m2 in 2100 as hazard measure, development pathway-specific 2100 populations in the 10 m × 10 km coast as exposure metrics, and development pathway-specific 2100 HDI Gaps as vulnerability estimates.
Present day climate threat index to the Canadian Eastern Arctic - West Greenland LME is within the low-risk (low threat) category. The combined contemporaneous risk due to extreme climate events, degrading LME states and the level of vulnerability of the coastal population, is low. The projected sea level rise by 2100 for this LME is at 0.5525 m under a scenario where emissions continue to increase throughout the 21st century with radiation levels reaching 8.5 watts/m2. However, the threat due to sea level rise could not be assessed in the absence of projected HDI data.
The Contemporary Threat Index incorporates a Dependence Factor based on the fish protein contribution to dietary animal protein, and on the mean contribution of LME tourism to the national GDPs of LME coastal states. The HDI Gap and the degree of dependence on LME ecosystem services define the vulnerability of a coastal population. It also includes the average of risk related to extreme climate events, and the risk based on the degrading system states of an LME (e.g. overexploited fisheries, pollution levels, decrease in coastal ecosystem areas).
The 2100 sea level rise threat indices, each computed for the sustainable world and fragmented world development pathways, use the maximum projected sea level rise at the highest level of warming of 8.5 W/m2 in 2100 as hazard measure, development pathway-specific 2100 populations in the 10 m × 10 km coast as exposure metrics, and development pathway-specific 2100 HDI Gaps as vulnerability estimates.
Present day climate threat index to the Canadian Eastern Arctic - West Greenland LME is within the low-risk (low threat) category. The combined contemporaneous risk due to extreme climate events, degrading LME states and the level of vulnerability of the coastal population, is low. The projected sea level rise by 2100 for this LME is at 0.5525 m under a scenario where emissions continue to increase throughout the 21st century with radiation levels reaching 8.5 watts/m2. However, the threat due to sea level rise could not be assessed in the absence of projected HDI data.
Governance architecture:
In this LME, none of the four transboundary fisheries agreements (NAFO, ICCAT, NAMMCO and NASCO) appear to have formal linkages across the different stages of the policy cycle or with the Arctic Council. However, there is an integrated mechanism in the form of the Arctic Council for pollution (LBS and MBS) and general biodiversity issues. To this end, the LME has been assigned an overall integration score of 1.0 due to the presence of the Arctic Council with its ability to function as an overall policy coordinating organization for the key transboundary issues within the LME.
The overall scores for the ranking of risk were:
The overall scores for the ranking of risk were: