Canadian Eastern Arctic - West Greenland
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LME 18: Canadian Eastern Arctic - West Greenland

Bordering countries:

Canada, Greenland

LME total area:

359,422 km²

LME overall risk:

This LME falls in the cluster of LMEs that exhibit high percentages of rural coastal population, high numbers of collapsed and overexploited fish stocks, as well as high proportions of catch from bottom impacting gear.
Based on a combined measure of the Human Development Index and the averaged indicators for fish & fisheries and pollution & ecosystem health modules, the overall risk factor is medium.

Productivity

Chlorophyll-A:

The annual Chlorophyll a concentration (CHL) cycle has a maximum peak (0.533 mg.m^-3) in July and a minimum (0.244 mg.m^-3) during March. The average CHL is 0.458 mg.m^-3. Maximum primary productivity (203 g.C.m^-2.y^-1) occurred during 1999 and minimum primary productivity (148 g.C.m^-2.y^-1) during 2005. There is a statistically insignificant increasing trend in Chlorophyll of 3.79 % from 2003 through 2013. The average primary productivity is 171 g.C.m^-2.y^-1, which places this LME in Group 2 of 5 categories (with 1 = lowest and 5= highest).

Primary productivity:

Sea Surface Temperature:

From 1957 to 2012, the Canadian Eastern Arctic-West Greenland LME #18 has warmed by 0.50°C, thus belonging to Category 3 (moderate warming LME). This LME featured rather cold SST (<0.6°C) through 1996. During this time, three Great Salinity Anomalies traveled through this LME, being transported by the West Greenland Current (Dickson et al., 1988; Belkin et al., 1998; Belkin, 2004). These low-salinity anomalies were accompanied by low-temperature anomalies around 1970, 1983-84, and 1996. The last anomaly has marked the end of cold epoch. Measured from the coldest event in 1970 (SST=-0.1°C) to the warmest event in 2010 (SST=1.0°C), the magnitude of SST increase is 1.1°C in 40 years. The thermal history of the West Greenland Shelf is linked by ocean currents to the thermal histories of the upstream East Greenland Shelf and downstream Newfoundland-Labrador region. These shelf areas are interconnected by a system of shelf-slope currents originating off NE Greenland and flowing equatorward.

Fish and Fisheries

The most important species group in terms of shelf catches for recent years is the northern prawn (Pandalus borealis), representing more than two-thirds of the total catch. Another important species group is flatfish.

Annual catch:

Reported landings of commercial fish species show major changes over the past century, from a system dominated by Atlantic cod landings to one defined by prawn. Reported landings were at a historical peak of over 510,000 t in 1962. They subsequently declined to under 100,000 t in the 1980s, but have shown an increasing trend over the last few years. As northern prawn now contributes the majority of the reported landings, a potentially large amount of fish bycatch is unreported.

Catch value:

The value of the reported landings reached 770 million US$ (in 2005 real US$) in 1965, but has since reduced to around 300 million US$ in recent years.

Marine Trophic Index and Fishing-in-Balance index:

From 1950 to 1970, when cod was dominant in the reported landings in the LME and as a result, the MTI remained high. It then showed a decline with the change from cod to prawn dominance in the ecosystem, implying ‘fishing down’ of the food web. The FiB index showed a similar trend, suggesting that the reported landings did not compensate for the decline in trophic levels during that period.

Stock status:

The Stock-Catch Status Plots indicate that more than 60% of commercially exploited stocks in the LME have collapsed or are overexploited, however, with about 90% of the landings still from fully exploited, collapsed and overexploited stocks, more specifically from the northern prawn. Considering the decrease in the reported landings over the past three decades, the observed trends in these plots present a stark reminder that they must be examined as a pair, not in isolation from each other.

Catch from bottom impacting gear:

The percentage of catch from the bottom gear type to the total catch reached its first peak at 75% in 1985 and this percentage ranges between 55 to 70% in the recent decade.

Fishing effort:

The total effective effort increased steadily from around 25 million kW in the 1950s to its peak at 120 million kW in the mid-2000s.

Primary Production Required:

The primary production required (PPR) to sustain the reported landings in the LME was over 70% of the observed primary production in the 1960s, before declining to around 10% in the last decade. The extremely high PPR recorded in the 1960s is likely a result of the high level of accumulated biomass of cod stocks being exploited.

Catch potential projections (under global warming):

Pollution and Ecosystem Health

Pollution

Nutrient ratio, Nitrogen load and Merged Indicator:

Human activities in watersheds are affecting nutrients transported by rivers into LMEs. Large amounts of nutrients (in particular nitrogen load) entering coastal waters of LMEs can result in high biomass algal blooms, leading to hypoxic or anoxic conditions, increased turbidity and changes in community composition, among other effects. In addition, changes in the ratio of nutrients entering LMEs can result in dominance by algal species that have deleterious effects (toxic, clog gills of shellfish, etc.) on ecosystems and humans. An overall nutrient indicator (Merged Nutrient Indicator) based on 2 sub-indicators: Nitrogen Load and Nutrient Ratio (ratio of dissolved Silica to Nitrogen or Phosphorus - the Index of Coastal Eutrophication Potential or ICEP) was calculated.

Nitrogen load:

The Nitrogen Load risk level for contemporary (2000) conditions was very low. (level 1 of the five risk categories, where 1 = lowest risk; 5 = highest risk). Based on a “current trends” scenario (Global Orchestration), this remained the same in 2030 and 2050.

Nutrient ratio:

The Nutrient Ratio (ICEP) risk level for contemporary (2000) conditions was high (4). According to the Global Orchestration scenario, this decreased to moderate in 2030 and remained moderate in 2050.

Merged nutrient indicator:

The risk level for the Merged Nutrient Indicator for contemporary (2000) conditions was very low (1). According to the Global Orchestration scenario, this remained the same in 2030 and 2050.

POPs:

No pellet samples were obtained from this LME.

Plastic debris:

Modelled estimates of floating plastic abundance (items km^-2), for both micro-plastic (<4.75 mm) and macro-plastic (>4.75 mm), indicate that this LME is in the group with the lowest plastic concentration. Estimates are based on three proxy sources of litter: shipping density, coastal population density and the level of urbanisation within major watersheds, with enhanced run-off. The low values are due to the remoteness of this LME from significant sources of plastic. The abundance of floating plastic in this category is estimated to be over 400 times lower than those LMEs with the highest values. There is very limited evidence from sea-based direct observations and towed nets to support this conclusion.

Ecosystem Health

Mangrove and coral cover:

Not applicable

Reefs at risk:

Not applicable

Marine Protected Area change:

The Canadian Eastern Arctic - West Greenland LME experienced an increase in MPA coverage from 7,520 km² prior to 1983 to 13,891 km² by 2014. This represents an increase of 85%, within the lowest category of MPA change.

Cumulative Human Impact:

The Canadian Eastern Arctic – West Greenland LME experiences below average overall cumulative human impact (score 2.52; maximum LME score 5.22), but which is still well above the LME with the least cumulative impact. It falls in risk category 1 of the five risk categories (1 = lowest risk; 5 = highest risk). This LME is most vulnerable to climate change. Of the 19 individual stressors, three connected to climate change have the highest average impact on the LME: ocean acidification (0.59; maximum in other LMEs was 1.20), UV radiation (0.42; maximum in other LMEs was 0.76), and sea surface temperature (1.13; maximum in other LMEs was 2.16). Other key stressors include ocean based pollution and demersal destructive commercial fishing.

Ocean Health Index:

The Canadian Eastern Arctic – West Greenland LME scores above average on the Ocean Health Index compared to other LMEs (score 77 out of 100; range for other LMEs was 57 to 82) but still relatively low. This score indicates that the LME is below its optimal level of ocean health, although there are many aspects that are doing well. Its score in 2013 increased 2 points compared to the previous year, due in large part to changes in the scores for clean waters. This LME scores lowest on natural products, carbon storage, and tourism & recreation goals and highest on mariculture, artisanal fishing opportunities, coastal protection, coastal economies, and biodiversity goals. It falls in risk category 1 of the five risk categories, which is the lowest level of risk (1 = lowest risk; 5 = highest risk).

Socio-economics

Indicators of demographic trends, economic dependence on ecosystem services, human wellbeing and vulnerability to present-day extreme climate events and projected sea level rise, are assessed for the Canadian Eastern Arctic - West Greenland LME. To compare and rank LMEs, they were classified into five categories of risk (from 1 to 5, corresponding to lowest, low, medium, high and highest risk, respectively) based on the values of the individual indicators. In the case of economic revenues, the LMEs were grouped to 5 classes of revenues from lowest, low, medium, high and highest, as revenues did not translate to risk.

Population:

The coastal area includes the north and eastern shores of Nunavut, and western Greenland, stretching over 743,645 km². A current population of 70,000 in 2010 is projected to decrease to 50,000 in 2100, with density decreasing from 9 persons per 100 km² in 2010 to 7 per 100 km² by 2100. About 81% of coastal population lives in rural areas, and is projected to decrease in share to 68% in 2100.

Coastal poor:

The indigent population makes up 10% of the LME’s coastal dwellers. The Canadian Eastern Arctic - West Greenland places in the very low-risk category based on percentage and absolute number of coastal poor (present day estimate).

Revenues and Spatial Wealth Distribution:

Fishing and tourism depend on ecosystem services provided by LMEs. The Canadian Eastern Arctic - West Greenland LME ranks in the medium revenue category in fishing revenues based on yearly average total ex-vessel price of US 2013 $386 million for the period 2001-2010. Fish protein accounts for 34% of the total animal protein consumption of the coastal population. Its yearly average tourism revenue for 2004-2013 of US 2013 $124 million places it in the very low revenue category. On average, LME-based tourism income contributes 4% to the national GDPs of the LME coastal states. Spatial distribution of economic activity (e.g. spatial wealth distribution) measured by night-light and population distribution as coarse proxies can range from 0.0000 (totally equal distribution and lowest risk) to 1.0000 (concentrated in 1 place and most inequitable and highest risk). The Night Light Development Index (NLDI) thus indicates the level of spatial economic development, and that for the Canadian Eastern Arctic - West Greenland LME falls in the category with high risk (low/ modestly developed).

Human Development Index:

Using the Human Development Index (HDI) that integrates measures of health, education and income, the present-day Canadian Eastern Arctic - West Greenland LME HDI belongs to the highest HDI and lowest risk category. Based on an HDI of 0.874, this LME has an HDI Gap of 0.126, the difference between present and highest possible HDI (1.000). The HDI Gap measures an overall vulnerability to external events such as disease or extreme climate related events, due to less than perfect health, education, and income levels, and is independent of the harshness of and exposure to specific external shocks.
HDI values are projected to the year 2100 in the contexts of shared socioeconomic development pathways (SSPs). The Canadian Eastern Arctic - West Greenland LME has no projected values for HDI metrics in either development pathway.

Climate-Related Threat Indices:

The Climate-Related Threat Indices utilize the HDI Gaps for present-day and projected 2100 scenarios. The contemporary climate index accounts for deaths and property losses due to storms, flooding and extreme temperatures incurred by coastal states during a 20-year period from 1994 to 2013 as hazard measures, the 2010 coastal population as proxy for exposure, and the present day HDI Gap as vulnerability measure.
The Contemporary Threat Index incorporates a Dependence Factor based on the fish protein contribution to dietary animal protein, and on the mean contribution of LME tourism to the national GDPs of LME coastal states. The HDI Gap and the degree of dependence on LME ecosystem services define the vulnerability of a coastal population. It also includes the average of risk related to extreme climate events, and the risk based on the degrading system states of an LME (e.g. overexploited fisheries, pollution levels, decrease in coastal ecosystem areas).
The 2100 sea level rise threat indices, each computed for the sustainable world and fragmented world development pathways, use the maximum projected sea level rise at the highest level of warming of 8.5 W/m² in 2100 as hazard measure, development pathway-specific 2100 populations in the 10 m × 10 km coast as exposure metrics, and development pathway-specific 2100 HDI Gaps as vulnerability estimates.
Present day climate threat index to the Canadian Eastern Arctic - West Greenland LME is within the low-risk (low threat) category. The combined contemporaneous risk due to extreme climate events, degrading LME states and the level of vulnerability of the coastal population, is low. The projected sea level rise by 2100 for this LME is at 0.5525 m under a scenario where emissions continue to increase throughout the 21^st century with radiation levels reaching 8.5 watts/m². However, the threat due to sea level rise could not be assessed in the absence of projected HDI data.

Governance

Governance architecture:

In this LME, none of the four transboundary fisheries agreements (NAFO, ICCAT, NAMMCO and NASCO) appear to have formal linkages across the different stages of the policy cycle or with the Arctic Council. However, there is an integrated mechanism in the form of the Arctic Council for pollution (LBS and MBS) and general biodiversity issues. To this end, the LME has been assigned an overall integration score of 1.0 due to the presence of the Arctic Council with its ability to function as an overall policy coordinating organization for the key transboundary issues within the LME.
The overall scores for the ranking of risk were: