Insular Pacific-Hawaiian
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LME 10: Insular Pacific-Hawaian

Bordering country:

United States of America

LME total area:

975,493 km²

LME overall risk:

This LME falls in the cluster of LMEs that exhibit medium numbers of collapsed and overexploited fish stocks, as well as very high proportions of catch from bottom impacting gear.
Based on a combined measure of the Human Development Index and the averaged indicators for fish & fisheries and pollution & ecosystem health modules, the overall risk factor is very low.

Productivity

Chlorophyll-A:

The annual Chlorophyll a concentration (CHL) cycle has a maximum peak (0.0735 mg.m^-3) in January and a minimum (0.0519 mg.m^-3) during June. The average CHL is 0.0588 mg.m^-3. Maximum primary productivity (81 g.C.m^-2.y^-1) occurred during 1998 and minimum primary productivity (67 g.C.m^-2.y^-1) during 2009. There is a statistically insignificant decreasing trend in Chlorophyll of -7.50 % from 2003 through 2013. The average primary productivity is 74 g.C.m^-2.y^-1, which places this LME in Group 1 of 5 categories (with 1 = lowest and 5= highest).

Primary productivity:

Sea Surface Temperature:

Between 1957 and 2012, the Insular Pacific Hawaiian LME #10 has warmed by 0.12°C, thus belonging to Category 4 (slow warming LME). This is the only mid-ocean LME. Even though this LME encompasses a large island chain, the oceanic environment is typical of the deep open ocean. Moreover, the Hawaiian LME is characteristic of the most stable oceanic environment within a large-scale anticyclonic subtropical gyre. This stability might help explain the most striking feature of the Hawaiian SST time series: the lack of significant long-term warming over the last 50 years. However, after the all-time minimum of <24.5°C in 1982-83, SST rose significantly to stay at 25°C or warmer from 2000 until present. Interannual variability is not substantial in absolute terms, usually <0.5°C, although it appears important when compared with the slow long-term warming of this LME.

Fish and Fisheries

The LME’s fisheries are on a relatively small scale compared to US mainland fisheries. Most fishery resources (bottom fishes, nearshore reef fishes, and invertebrates) are concentrated in the coastal waters of the narrow shelf areas surrounding the islands, but there is also a fishery for highly migratory pelagic species, and tuna (bigeye, yellowfin, skipjack, albacore) are the LME’s most valuable resource.

Annual catch:

Total reported landings in this LME reached 150,000 t in 1987, with extremely high landings of grunts (Haemulidae), but have since declined to below 10,000 t in recent 10 years. Catches of inshore fish by small-scale and recreational fishery is considerable, however, and were they to be included, the trend in the reported landings would change considerably.

Catch value:

The value of reported landings peaked at nearly 300 million US$ (in 2005 real US$) in 1987.

Marine Trophic Index and Fishing-in-Balance index:

The MTI shows a steady decline, an indication of a ‘fishing down’ of the food web in the LME. The FiB index also showed an initial increase, followed by a decline since the late 1980s.

Stock status:

The problem of the misreporting in the underlying statistics probably also affect the Stock-Catch Status Plots, which indicate that about 60% of commercially exploited stocks have collapsed, with about 60% of the reported landings biomass supplied by either collapsed or overexploited stocks.

Catch from bottom impacting gear:

The percentage of catch from the bottom gear type to the total catch fluctuated around 7 to 15% from 1950 to the mid-1980s. Then, this percentage reached its first maximum at 27% in 1993 and then fluctuated between 7 and 28% in the recent few decades.

Fishing effort:

The total effective effort increased steadily from around 10 million kW in the 1950s to its peak at 67 million kW in the mid- 2000s.

Primary Production Required:

The primary production required (PPR) to sustain the reported landings in the LME reached 7% of the observed primary production in the late 1980s, but has declined to below 1% in recent years.

Catch potential projections (under global warming):

Pollution and Ecosystem Health

Pollution

Nutrient ratio, Nitrogen load and Merged Indicator:

Human activities in watersheds are affecting nutrients transported by rivers into LMEs. Large amounts of nutrients (in particular nitrogen load) entering coastal waters of LMEs can result in high biomass algal blooms, leading to hypoxic or anoxic conditions, increased turbidity and changes in community composition, among other effects. In addition, changes in the ratio of nutrients entering LMEs can result in dominance by algal species that have deleterious effects (toxic, clog gills of shellfish, etc.) on ecosystems and humans. An overall nutrient indicator (Merged Nutrient Indicator) based on 2 sub-indicators: Nitrogen Load and Nutrient Ratio (ratio of dissolved Silica to Nitrogen or Phosphorus - the Index of Coastal Eutrophication Potential or ICEP) was calculated.

Nitrogen load:

The Nitrogen Load risk level for contemporary (2000) conditions was very low. (level 1 of the five risk categories, where 1 = lowest risk; 5 = highest risk). Based on a “current trends” scenario (Global Orchestration), this remained the same in 2030 and 2050.

Nutrient ratio:

The Nutrient Ratio (ICEP) risk level for contemporary (2000) conditions was very low (1). According to the Global Orchestration scenario, this remained the same in 2030 and 2050.

Merged nutrient indicator:

The risk level for the Merged Nutrient Indicator for contemporary (2000) conditions was very low (1). According to the Global Orchestration scenario, this remained the same in 2030 and 2050.

POPs:

The Insular Pacific-Hawaiian LME has 4 samples at 4 locations. The average concentration (ng.g^-1 of pellets) was 3 (range 0.1 – 9 ng.g^-1) for PCBs, 2 (range 1 – 3 ng.g^-1) for DDTs, and 0.3 (range 0.3 – 0.4 ng.g^-1) for HCHs. All averages correspond to risk category 1 of the five risk categories (1 = lowest risk; 5 = highest risk). This is probably due to minimal anthropogenic activities involving the use of POPs (PCBs in industries and DDT and HCH pesticides in agriculture) and remoteness from areas with high anthropogenic activities. Most of these could have been derived from long-range atmospheric transport, and these concentrations can be considered as a reflection of global background pollution of POPs.

Plastic debris:

Modelled estimates of floating plastic abundance (items km^-2), for both micro-plastic (<4.75 mm) and macro-plastic (>4.75 mm), indicate that this LME is in the group with relatively high levels of plastic concentration. Estimates are based on three proxy sources of litter: shipping density, coastal population density and the level of urbanisation within major watersheds, with enhanced run-off. The high values are due to the relative importance of these sources in this LME. The abundance of floating plastic in this category there is good evidence from sea-based direct observations and towed nets to support this conclusion.

Ecosystem Health

Mangrove and coral cover:

0.0007% of this LME is covered by mangroves (US Geological Survey, 2011) and 0.41% by coral reefs (Global Distribution of Coral Reefs, 2010).

Reefs at risk:

This LME has a present (2011) integrated threat index (combining threat from overfishing and destructive fishing, watershed-based and marine-based pollution and damage) of 142. 8% of coral reefs cover is under very high threat, and 6% under high threat (of the 5 possible threat categories, from low to critical). When combined with past thermal stress (between 1998 and 2007), these values increase to 9% and 7% for very high and high threat categories respectively. By year 2030, 15% of coral cover in this LME is predicted to be under high to critical level of threat from warming and acidification; remaining at 15% by 2050.

Marine Protected Area change:

The Insular Pacific-Hawaiian LME experienced an increase in MPA coverage from 2,672 km² prior to 1983 to 370,253 km²

Cumulative Human Impact:

The Insular Pacific-Hawaiian LME experiences an average overall cumulative human impact (score 3.52; maximum LME score 5.22), but which is still well above the LME with the least cumulative impact. It falls in risk category 3 of the five risk categories (1 = lowest risk; 5 = highest risk). This LME is most vulnerable to climate change. Of the 19 individual stressors, three connected to climate change have the highest average impact on the LME: ocean acidification (1.20; the maximum score seen for any LME), UV radiation (0.67; maximum in other LMEs was 0.76), and sea surface temperature (1.33; maximum in other LMEs was 2.16). Other key stressors include commercial shipping and ocean based pollution.

Ocean Health Index:

The Insular Pacific-Hawaiian LME scores above average on the Ocean Health Index compared to other LMEs (score 72 out of 100; range for other LMEs was 57 to 82) but still relatively low. This score indicates that the LME is well below its optimal level of ocean health, although there are some aspects that are doing well. Its score in 2013 increased 9 points compared to the previous year, due in large part to changes in the scores for clean waters. This LME scores lowest on food provision, natural products, coastal livelihoods, and tourism & recreation goals and highest on artisanal fishing opportunities, coastal economies, and lasting special places goals. It falls in risk category 2 of the five risk categories, which is a moderate level of risk (1 = lowest risk; 5 = highest risk).

Socio-economics

Indicators of demographic trends, economic dependence on ecosystem services, human wellbeing and vulnerability to present-day extreme climate events and projected sea level rise, are assessed for the Insular Pacific-Hawaiian LME. To compare and rank LMEs, they were classified into five categories of risk (from 1 to 5, corresponding to lowest, low, medium, high and highest risk, respectively) based on the values of the individual indicators. In the case of economic revenues, the LMEs were grouped to 5 classes of revenues from lowest, low, medium, high and highest, as revenues did not translate to risk.

Population:

The area includes the Pacific coasts of southern Mexico, Central America, and the South American nations of Colombia, Ecuador and northernmost portion of Peru, covering a total of 585,973 km². A current population of 50 million is projected to almost double to 98 million in 2100, as reflected in density increasing from 86 persons per km² in 2010 to 167 per km² by 2100. About 47% of coastal population lives in rural areas, and is projected to increase in share to 52% in 2100.

Coastal poor:

The indigent population makes up 44% of the LME’s coastal dwellers. The Insular Pacific-Hawaiian LME places in the highest-risk category based on percentage and absolute number of coastal poor (present day estimate).

Revenues and Spatial Wealth Distribution:

Fishing and tourism depend on ecosystem services provided by LMEs. The Insular Pacific-Hawaiian LME ranks in the high revenue category in fishing revenues based on yearly average total ex-vessel price of US 2013 $24 million for the period 2001-2010. Fish protein accounts for 7% of the total animal protein consumption of the coastal population. Its yearly average tourism revenue for 2004-2013 of US 2013 $6096 million places it in the low revenue category. On average, LME-based tourism income contributes 8% to the national GDPs of the LME coastal states. Spatial distribution of economic activity (e.g. spatial wealth distribution) measured by night-light and population distribution as coarse proxies can range from 0.0000 (totally equal distribution and lowest risk) to 1.0000 (concentrated in 1 place and most inequitable and highest risk). The Night Light Development Index (NLDI) thus indicates the level of spatial economic development, and that for the Insular Pacific-Hawaiian LME falls in the category with low risk.

Human Development Index:

Using the Human Development Index (HDI) that integrates measures of health, education and income, the present-day Insular Pacific-Hawaiian LME HDI belongs to the highest HDI and lowest risk category. Based on an HDI of 0.909, this LME has an HDI Gap of 0.091, the difference between present and highest possible HDI (1.000). The HDI Gap measures an overall vulnerability to external events such as disease or extreme climate related events, due to less than perfect health, education, and income levels, and is independent of the harshness of and exposure to specific external shocks.
HDI values are projected to the year 2100 in the contexts of shared socioeconomic development pathways (SSPs). The Insular Pacific-Hawaiian LME is projected to maintain its position in the lowest risk category (highest HDI) in 2100 under a sustainable development pathway or scenario. Under a fragmented world scenario, this LME is estimated to place in the high risk category (low HDI) because of reduced income level and increased population size compared to estimated income and population values in a sustainable development pathway.

Climate-Related Threat Indices:

The Climate-Related Threat Indices utilize the HDI Gaps for present-day and projected 2100 scenarios. The contemporary climate index accounts for deaths and property losses due to storms, flooding and extreme temperatures incurred by coastal states during a 20-year period from 1994 to 2013 as hazard measures, the 2010 coastal population as proxy for exposure, and the present day HDI Gap as vulnerability measure.
The Contemporary Threat Index incorporates a Dependence Factor based on the fish protein contribution to dietary animal protein, and on the mean contribution of LME tourism to the national GDPs of LME coastal states. The HDI Gap and the degree of dependence on LME ecosystem services define the vulnerability of a coastal population. It also includes the average of risk related to extreme climate events, and the risk based on the degrading system states of an LME (e.g. overexploited fisheries, pollution levels, decrease in coastal ecosystem areas).
The 2100 sea level rise threat indices, each computed for the sustainable world and fragmented world development pathways, use the maximum projected sea level rise at the highest level of warming of 8.5 W/m² in 2100 as hazard measure, development pathway-specific 2100 populations in the 10 m × 10 km coast as exposure metrics, and development pathway-specific 2100 HDI Gaps as vulnerability estimates.
Present day climate threat index to the Insular Pacific-Hawaiian LME is within the low-risk (low threat) category. The combined contemporaneous risk due to extreme climate events, degrading LME states and the level of vulnerability of the coastal population, is low. In a sustainable development scenario, the risk index from sea level rise in 2100 is lowest, and increases to medium risk under a fragmented world development pathway.