California Current
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LME 3: California Current

Bordering countries:

United States of America, Mexico

LME total area:

2,224,665 km²

LME overall risk:

This LME falls in the cluster of LMEs that exhibit medium numbers of collapsed and overexploited fish stocks, as well as very high proportions of catch from bottom impacting gear.
Based on a combined measure of the Human Development Index and the averaged indicators for fish & fisheries and pollution & ecosystem health modules, the overall risk factor is low.

Productivity

Chlorophyll-A:

The annual Chlorophyll a concentration (CHL) cycle has a maximum peak (0.245 mg.m^-3) in February and a minimum (0.176 mg.m^-3) during September. The average CHL is 0.213 mg.m^-3. Maximum primary productivity (156 g.C.m^-2.y^-1) occurred during 2008 and minimum primary productivity (134 g.C.m^-2.y^-1) during 2012. There is a statistically insignificant increasing trend in Chlorophyll of 2.92 % from 2003 through 2013. The average primary productivity is 144 g.C.m^-2.y^-1, which places this LME in Group 2 of 5 categories (with 1 = lowest and 5= highest).

Primary productivity:

Sea Surface Temperature:

Between 1957 and 2012, the California Current LME #3 has warmed by 0.02°C. It thus belongs to Category 4 (slow-warming LME). Very much like the East Bering Sea LME #01 and the Gulf of Alaska LME #02, the California Current cooled dramatically from 1958 to 1975, by ~2°C. After bottoming at 16.2°C in 1975, SST abruptly warmed by 1977 following the North Pacific regime shift in 1976-1977 (Hare and Mantua, 2000). The absolute minimum of 1975 was synchronous with the absolute minima in two other East Pacific LMEs: Gulf of California LME #04 and Central American Pacific LME #11. The absolute maximum of 18.3°C in 1997 is attributed to El Niño, whereas the dramatic 1.7°C cooling of 1998-1999 was likely associated with La Niña. The California Current is one of several LMEs that cooled since 1997. The thermal history of the California Current LME resembles that of the Humboldt Current LME#13, apparently due to both LMEs being located in similar oceanographic regimes of East Pacific coastal upwelling systems.

Fish and Fisheries

The major commercial fish species are Pacific salmon, pelagic fishes (Pacific sardine, northern anchovy, jack mackerel, chub Pacific mackerel, Pacific herring, Pacific halibut and other groundfish. Shrimp, crab, clam and abalone have high commercial value.

Annual catch:

Natural environmental change and intensive fishing are causing long-term shifts in abundance of both sardine and anchovy in this LME. Total reported landings show several peaks and troughs over the reported period, with a record landing of 810,000 t in 1981 with notable, substantial decline in 1984 and 1992.

Catch value:

The value of the reported landings peaked in 1981 at 770 million US$ (in 2005 real US$).

Marine Trophic Index and Fishing-in-Balance index:

Both the MTI and the FiB index showed considerable fluctuations over the reported period with no clear trend, except for the initial increase in the FiB index corresponding to the growth in the fisheries in the LME during the 1960s.

Stock status:

The Stock-Catch Status Plots indicate that about 45% of the stocks in the LME have collapsed, or are currently over-exploited, but with more than half of the reported landings biomass still supplied by fully exploited stocks.

Catch from bottom impacting gear:

The percentage of catch from the bottom gear type to the total catch reaches its maximum at 43% in 1965 and then this percentage ranges between 6 to 14% in the recent few decades.

Fishing effort:

The total effective effort increased steadily from around 60 million kW in the 1960s to its peak at 200 million kW in the mid-2000s.

Primary Production Required:

The primary production required (PPR) to sustain reported landings in this LME reached 16% of the observed primary production in the late 1980s, and fluctuated between 7 to 15% in recent years.

Catch potential projections (under global warming):

Pollution and Ecosystem Health

Pollution

Nutrient ratio, Nitrogen load and Merged Indicator:

Human activities in watersheds are affecting nutrients transported by rivers into LMEs. Large amounts of nutrients (in particular nitrogen load) entering coastal waters of LMEs can result in high biomass algal blooms, leading to hypoxic or anoxic conditions, increased turbidity and changes in community composition, among other effects. In addition, changes in the ratio of nutrients entering LMEs can result in dominance by algal species that have deleterious effects (toxic, clog gills of shellfish, etc.) on ecosystems and humans. An overall nutrient indicator (Merged Nutrient Indicator) based on 2 sub-indicators: Nitrogen Load and Nutrient Ratio (ratio of dissolved Silica to Nitrogen or Phosphorus - the Index of Coastal Eutrophication Potential or ICEP) was calculated.

Nitrogen load:

The Nitrogen Load risk level for contemporary (2000) conditions was low. (level 2 of the five risk categories, where 1 = lowest risk; 5 = highest risk). Based on a “current trends” scenario (Global Orchestration), this remained the same in 2030 and 2050.

Nutrient ratio:

The Nutrient Ratio (ICEP) risk level for contemporary (2000) conditions was moderate (3). According to the Global Orchestration scenario, this remained the same in 2030 and decreased to low in 2050.

Merged nutrient indicator:

The risk level for the Merged Nutrient Indicator for contemporary (2000) conditions was low (2). According to the Global Orchestration scenario, this remained the same in 2030 and 2050.

POPs:

The California Current LME has 18 samples at 15 locations. The average concentration (ng.g^-1 of pellets) was 156 (range 11-602 ng.g^-1) for PCBs, 67 (range 3-312 ng.g^-1) for DDTs, and 1.0 (range 0.1 -5.7 ng.g^-1) for HCHs. The PCBs and DDT averages correspond to risk category 3 and HCH to category 1, of the 5 risk categories (1 = lowest risk; 5 = highest risk). The highest concentrations of PCBs (risk categories 4 and 5) were observed for samples collected around Los Angeles (409 ng.g^-1) and San Francisco (602 ng.g^-1), and ascribed to legacy pollution. The decreasing trend (by about 50 % in 5 years) in the legacy PCB pollution was suggested through time-series collection and analysis of pellets. High concentrations of DDTs were also ascribed to legacy pollution from agricultural application of DDT pesticide. In addition, legacy pollution caused by past discharge of wastewater from an industrial plant (the world’s largest producer of DDT pesticide) was suggested at one location (Hermosa Beach, California). The level of legacy DDTs pollution appeared to decrease over time. Although PCBs and DDT concentrations show a decreasing trend, both are still moderate. Continuous monitoring is recommended.

Plastic debris:

Modelled estimates of floating plastic abundance (items km^-2), for both micro-plastic (<4.75 mm) and macro-plastic (>4.75 mm), indicate that this LME is in the group with relatively moderate levels of plastic concentration. Estimates are based on three proxy sources of litter: shipping density, coastal population density and the level of urbanisation within major watersheds, with enhanced run-off. The high values are due to the relative importance of these sources in this LME. The abundance of floating plastic in this category is estimated to be on average over 12 times lower that those LMEs with lowest values. There is good evidence from sea-based direct observations and towed nets to support this conclusion.

Ecosystem Health

Mangrove and coral cover:

Not applicable

Reefs at risk:

Not applicable

Marine Protected Area change:

The California Current LME experienced an increase in MPA coverage from 3,178 km² prior to 1983 to 44,090 km² by 2014. This represents an increase of 1,287%, within the low category of MPA change.

Cumulative Human Impact:

The California Current LME experiences an average overall cumulative human impact (score 2.95; maximum LME score 5.22), but which is still well above the LME with the least cumulative impact. It falls in risk category 2 of the five risk categories (1 = lowest risk; 5 = highest risk). This LME is most vulnerable to climate change. Of the 19 individual stressors, three connected to climate change have the highest average impact on the LME: ocean acidification (0.97; maximum in other LMEs was 1.20), UV radiation (0.7; maximum in other LMEs was 0.76), and sea surface temperature (0.55; maximum in other LMEs was 2.16). Other key stressors include commercial shipping, ocean based pollution, and demersal non-destructive low-bycatch commercial fishing.

Ocean Health Index:

The California Current LME scores above average on the Ocean Health Index compared to other LMEs (score 72 out of 100; range for other LMEs was 57 to 82) but still relatively low. This score indicates that the LME is well below its optimal level of ocean health, although there are some aspects that are doing well. Its score in 2013 increased 5 points compared to the previous year, due in large part to changes in the scores for coastal economies and clean waters. This LME scores lowest on mariculture, coastal protection, coastal livelihoods, and iconic species goals and highest on artisanal fishing opportunities, coastal economies, lasting special places, and species diversity goals. It falls in risk category 3 of the five risk categories, which is an average level of risk (1 = lowest risk; 5 = highest risk).

Socio-economics

Indicators of demographic trends, economic dependence on ecosystem services, human wellbeing and vulnerability to present-day extreme climate events and projected sea level rise, are assessed for the California Current LME. To compare and rank LMEs, they were classified into five categories of risk (from 1 to 5, corresponding to lowest, low, medium, high and highest risk, respectively) based on the values of the individual indicators. In the case of economic revenues, the LMEs were grouped to 5 classes of revenues from lowest, low, medium, high and highest, as revenues did not translate to risk.

Population:

The coastal area includes the western coasts of the United States of America and Baja California, Mexico. Its population size is in the large (high risk) category with the rural portion increasing from 3% in 2010 to 4% in 2100. Covering 286,072 km², a population density of 138 people per km² in 2010 increases to 190 people per km² in 2100.

Coastal poor:

The indigent population makes up 18% of the LME’s coastal dwellers. This LME places in the high-risk category based on percentage of poor and in absolute number of poor at slightly over 7.3 million (present day estimate).

Revenues and Spatial Wealth Distribution:

Fishing and tourism depend on ecosystem services provided by LMEs. The California Current LME ranks in the moderately high revenue category in fishing revenues based on yearly average total ex-vessel price of nearly US 2013 $563 million for the period 2001-2010. Fish protein accounts for 7% of the total animal protein consumption of the coastal population. Its yearly average tourism revenue for 2004-2013 of US 2013 $227 billion places it in the highest revenue category. On average, LME-based tourism income contributes 8% to the national GDPs of the LME coastal states. Spatial distribution of economic activity (e.g. spatial wealth distribution) measured by night-light and population distribution as coarse proxies can range from 0.0000 (totally equal distribution and lowest risk) to 1.0000 (concentrated in 1 place and most inequitable and highest risk). The Night Light Development Index (NLDI) thus indicates the level of spatial economic development, and that for the California Current LME falls in the category with lowest risk.

Human Development Index:

Using the Human Development Index (HDI) that integrates measures of health, education and income, the present-day California Current LME HDI belongs to the highest HDI and lowest risk category. Based on an HDI of 0.903, this LME has an HDI Gap of 0.097, the difference between present and highest possible HDI (1.000). The HDI Gap measures an overall vulnerability to external events such as disease or extreme climate related events, due to less than perfect health, education, and income levels, and is independent of the harshness of and exposure to specific external shocks.
HDI values are projected to the year 2100 in the contexts of shared socioeconomic development pathways (SSPs). The California Current LME is projected to maintain its position in the lowest risk category (highest HDI) in 2100 under a sustainable development pathway or scenario. Under a fragmented world scenario, this LME is projected to slip to the high risk category (low HDI) because of reduced income level and bigger population size compared to estimated income and population values in a sustainable development pathway.

Climate-Related Threat Indices:

The Climate-Related Threat Indices utilize the HDI Gaps for present-day and projected 2100 scenarios. The contemporary climate index accounts for deaths and property losses due to storms, flooding and extreme temperatures incurred by coastal states during a 20-year period from 1994 to 2013 as hazard measures, the 2010 coastal population as proxy for exposure, and the present day HDI Gap as vulnerability measure.
The Contemporary Threat Index incorporates a Dependence Factor based on the fish protein contribution to dietary animal protein, and on the mean contribution of LME tourism to the national GDPs of LME coastal states. The HDI Gap and the degree of dependence on LME ecosystem services define the vulnerability of a coastal population. It also includes the average of risk related to extreme climate events, and the risk based on the degrading system states of an LME (e.g. overexploited fisheries, pollution levels, decrease in coastal ecosystem areas).
The 2100 sea level rise threat indices, each computed for the sustainable world and fragmented world development pathways, use the maximum projected sea level rise at the highest level of warming of 8.5 W/m² in 2100 as hazard measure, development pathway-specific 2100 populations in the 10 m × 10 km coast as exposure metrics, and development pathway-specific 2100 HDI Gaps as vulnerability estimates.
Present day climate threat to the California Current LME is within the moderate risk (moderate threat) category. The combined contemporaneous risk due to extreme climate events, degrading LME states and the level of vulnerability of the coastal population, is low. In a sustainable development pathway, this LME is projected to belong to the lowest risk category that is least threatened by sea level rise in 2100. In a fragmented world development scenario, the sea level rise threat index increases to moderate risk level.

Governance

Governance architecture:

In this LME, the two transboundary arrangements for fisheries relating to halibut and the anadromous species (IPHC and NPAFC) are assisted by PICES in the provision of policy and planning level advice. However, these arrangements are not linked in any formal way with IATTC and it is unclear to what extent PICES participates in the IATTC. In terms of pollution and biodiversity arrangements, there appears to be no formal arrangement in force although the US and Mexico has an action plan (MEXUS-PAC) to assist each other in the event of a significant spill in each other’s waters that could affect the neighboring country. Since the Antigua Convention is not yet in force, there appears to be no formal arrangements for addressing land-based or marine-based sources of pollution (other than the MEXUS-PAC action plan) in the LME. Likewise, biodiversity arrangements are limited to the Inter-American Convention for the protection of turtles.
Further, no integrating mechanisms, such as an overall policy coordinating organisation for the LME, could be found. There may be interaction among the arrangements through participation in each other’s meetings, but this appears to be informal.
The overall scores for ranking of risk were: